Archive

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Despite a volatile week, global equities ended the week right where they started. Prices on US Treasuries fell, and commodities rallied.
– Large Cap Growth carried the weight of the cap-weighted indices, as eight of nine style boxes declined.
– Strength in China, Taiwan, and Brazil helped emerging markets move higher and outperform.
– For the second time this summer, crude oil prices found support in the $74-75 range and rebounded.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Unexpected rise in Unemployment to 4.3% led to another down week for global stocks and commodities, while Treasuries and Real Estate were safe havens.
– Sector returns were mixed with 5 of 11 sectors advancing in a down week, as capital rotated to the “flight to safety” sectors.
– European equities gave up their prior week’s outperformance and dragged down international equity indices.
– Increase in the Unemployment rate caused the Sahm rule to trigger a recession warning. Treasuries rallied – the yield on the 10Yr fell below 4% for the first time since February.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities and commodities declined – Real Estate and Treasuries advanced modestly for the week.
– Weakness in cap-weighted indices was largely confined to Large Cap Growth and Tech. 7 of 9 style boxes and 7 of 11 sectors saw higher prices.
– Despite declines in broad foreign indices, European equities rebounded last week.
– High yield fixed income rallied, causing high yield spreads to sink to the lowest level since December 2021.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities and fixed income declined, while Real Estate rallied.
– Large Growth and Tech stocks fell sharply. Value stocks and small caps had another strong week.
– European stocks underperformed, weighing on international equity indices.
– Broad decline across all commodity sectors. Bitcoin, range bound since March, rallied more than 16% from July’s lower low.

%

Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%