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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities and fixed income declined, but Commodities rallied on the strength in Agriculture.
– Sectors were mixed with five advancing and six declining for the second week in a row. Same for Energy stock strength and Tech sector weakness.
– Fixed income continued to struggle across the board. The dollar made a new 52week high and rallied to the highest level since April 2020.
– Agriculture rallied 5.2% to drive broad commodity indices higher despite a decline in oil prices for the week.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities and fixed income declined, and commodities were flat. Sharp decline in Dow Transports of 6.7% for the week.
– Sectors were mixed with five advancing and six declining. Another strong week for Energy and poor showing for Tech stocks.
– Although developed and emerging indices are down, nearly half of 45 countries that we track are actually up ytd, with a median return of 5.5%.
– US Treasuries sold off sharply on news that initial jobless claims fell to 166K, the lowest since 1968, a time when the labor force was half its current size.

Q1 2022 World Wrap

Q1 2022 World Wrap

– The first quarter of 2022 ended with negative performance from both equities and fixed income. Only commodities moved higher.
– Value stocks outperformed growth stocks broadly. Energy exposure in an index has been most important factor, with the sector up a whopping 39% in Q1.
– Emerging markets underperformed, weighed down by a Q1 decline in China equities of 14.2%.
– The 2s10s version of the US Treasury Yield Curve inverted, the first recessionary signal from the yield curve since the economic recovery began.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global risk assets rallied, but US Treasuries and fixed income struggled broadly.
– Strong rebound in Energy stocks, drove Large and Mid-Cap value into positive ytd returns.
– Sharp increase in Latin American stocks for the week – now up 26% year to date.
– Fixed income was hammered across the board. Every major fixed income sector is in the red thus far in 2022.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%