– Stocks rallied, while bonds and REITs were flat. Higher oil prices pushed commodity indices higher.
– Energy and financials moved sharply higher again last week – Energy has climbed more than 30% in Nov. Value stocks are finally flat on the yr.
– Intl developed equities finally managed to outperform Emerging markets during a week, but still lagging significantly ytd.
– Purchasing power of the US dollar continues to decline, as the dollar hit fresh new lows for the year.
– US Equities and REITs declined, but international stocks and commodities moved higher.
– Large cap stocks declined but mid and small caps were up broadly. Value stocks were up across the board, and Energy advanced another 5.6%.
– International equities climbed, and emerging market stocks have opened a wide performance lead over developed mkts year-to-date.
– The dollar fell, and commodities continue to signal reflation with copper, lumber, and crude oil each going up another 4-7%.
– Vaccine news has driven the risk scores higher on investor psychology and valuations.
– Psychology crosses back above the 99th percentile, but this move is more pervasively euphoric than the August one.
– Rydex Ratio sets new all-time high, and our short-term sentiment composite reached a six year high.
– 2020 is challenging dot-com era valuations in ways that we would never have imagined.
– Another broad move higher by risk assets. Real Estate finally showing signs of life with an 8% move on the week.
– More unwind of the Covid trade. Tech stocks declined, and Energy stocks were up a whopping 17% in a week.
– Similar to US sector & style behavior, the two countries with leading ytd returns (China and Denmark) declined, while the year’s worst performers rallied.
– Economically sensitive commodities had a strong week, as gold and silver prices moved lower by more than 3%.
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Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
