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World Wrap

World Wrap

– U.S. equities declined while other key global asset classes climbed. International equities outperformed U.S. stocks by more than 5% last week.
– Large-cap stocks, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors were the focus of selling, dragging the cap-weighted U.S. indices lower.
– Developed markets rallied more than 4%, with Europe accounting for 8 of the 10 best-performing countries year-to-date.
– The U.S. dollar sank to a three-year low, falling below 100. Gold hit new all-time highs, crossing above $3,330 per ounce.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– After an especially volatile week driven by tweets and tariff headlines, US stocks finished sharply higher, while US Treasuries and Intl stocks declined.
– Momentum, technology, and large-cap growth stocks outperformed and helped drive the major indices higher.
– Developed markets ended the week higher, but falling prices in Asia weighed on broader international indices and emerging markets.
– Early signs of distress in fixed income: US Treasuries fell, sending rates higher. Gold spiked 7%, topping $3,200/oz for the first time.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US equities experienced their largest weekly decline since March 2020. Treasuries and intl equities remain the only major asset classes still holding gains for 2025.
– It was a sea of red last week, with all styles, factors, and sectors posting losses.
– Emerging markets held up relatively well, experiencing only 30–35% of the downside seen in US markets.
– In a break from the stock market correction playbook, the US dollar fell. Similarly, the drop in UST yields hasn’t matched the equity market decline.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities declined on tariff & trade concerns. In the past 45 years, when U.S. stocks fell this much by this time of year, they were already in a bear market.
– There were places to hide last week, with four of 11 sectors advancing. Consumer Staples, a traditional safe-haven sector, climbed 1.7%.
– Developed international equities underperformed, though pockets of Europe and Emerging European stocks advanced.
– It was another week of all-time highs for gold. Despite a declining stock market, yields on U.S. Treasuries rose after core PCE inflation climbed to 2.8%.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

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