-Four straight weeks of US equity declines. After climbing the prior week, international equities played catch up on the price declines, falling more than 4%.
– The Covid pair trade that has worked so well in 2020 had a good bounce back. Tech stocks climbed, while Energy and Financials were hit hard.
– Another week of US dollar strength led to declines in commodities and international equities.
– Yields on both junk and investment grade corporate credit moved higher. US Treasury prices rallied.
Archive
Market Outlook – Market Risk Index falls below 90%
– MRI improvement was all a monetary phenomenon this week.
– It’s the most oversold market since March, but no huge improvements with investor psychology
– Markets are lamenting fading stimulus, but policymakers will likely blink when our psychology composite improves.
World Wrap
– US equities fell for the third week in a row, and Treasuries joined them. Commodities and international equities moved higher.
– The energy sector staged a modest bounce last week, while leading sectors Tech and Consumer Discretion declined again.
– Both Europe and Asia rallied last week to drive international equities higher. The US dollar continues to show modest signs of strengthening.
– Oil snapped back and moved almost 10% higher, but the big story was lumber whose prices are in serious retreat from recent highs.
Market Outlook – Hottest IPO Market Since Dotcom Era
– Market Risk Index is above 90% but improves on a push by the yield curve into neutral territory.
– The yield curve is neutral, but reversion to a positive slope has been underwhelming. We look at two other historical examples from the last 55yrs.
– Based on first day price increases in IPOs, this is the hottest IPO market since the dot com era.
– Update on investor sentiment and options market euphoria.
– …and the best in charts this week.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%