– The Russian invasion of Ukraine put more pressure on international equities rather than US equities, as domestic stocks rallied from oversold levels.
– Growth stocks staged a rebound after suffering persistent declines for the first two months of 2022.
– International stocks struggled. China declined 5.8%, and the Russian stock market fell more than 30% last week, much of it occurring the day the invasion began.
– Bitcoin has behaved like a proxy for the risk trade in markets and has suffered declines comparable to growth stocks, falling 15.8% ytd.
Archive
Market Outlook – Russian invasion increases investor anxiety.
– Notable improvement in short-term investor psychology.
– Bond Momentum still recommends long-term Treasuries.
World Wrap
– A difficult week for risk assets amid inflation and Ukraine concerns. US and International equities declined by 1.6%.
– Relative strength of value stocks continues. Small-cap and mid-cap value stocks managed to move higher.
– Emerging markets outperformed and are still holding onto positive ytd returns.
– Bitcoin and oil sold off. Natural gas prices moved higher by 11.2%.
Market Outlook – PPI is flying too high.
– Investment advisors follow the lead of individual investors and grow more anxious about markets.
– PPI inflation is still at levels associated with falling stock prices.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%