– Equities and commodities declined, while bonds and REITs rallied. REITs lead all asset classes & having their best year since 2014.
– Growth stocks and small cap stocks were punished in markets last week. Small cap growth lags all other style boxes. Healthcare stocks declined 3% last week.
– China manufacturing PMI improves but still in contraction. In response to rumors, Trump administration says no plan to block Chinese listings on US exchanges.
– A Reuters poll of fixed income strategists reveals 70% expect bond yields to remain depressed for at least 5 yrs.
Archive
Market Outlook: Levered ETF speculators are full of enthusiasm
– MRI makes a move in the wrong direction.
– Psychology readings are a rounding error away from the bottom decile – the level that puts market rallies on notice.
– ETF investors are levering up.
– Credit cycle indicators are suggesting caution, but confidence has yet to break.
– Do impeachment headlines matter?
World Wrap
– Major risk assets rallied last week, except US stocks, which broke their four-week streak of higher prices to close down for the week.
– Small stocks & value stocks gave back some recent gains selling off more than the mkt. Energy, Healthcare & Utilities sectors climbed while all other sectors fell.
– Big miss in European PMI. Same theme of weaker manufacturing but starting to spread to service sector. Saudis expect to restore full oil output by next week.
– Fed announced it will provide $75b to overnight repo market daily through October 10 in effort to alleviate cash crunch and prevent a spike in short term rates.
Market Outlook: Is money getting tighter?
– Investor Psychology improvements are waning, and sentiment is reversing.
– Valuations improve, but are still in the “Black Swan” decile.
– Quant crash last week and overnight repo market make it sound like money is getting tighter.
– Small caps and value stocks are attractive on a relative basis but a little below average on an absolute basis.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%