– Global equities declined, and US Treasuries were up. US Equities and Commodities were down more than 4% last week.
– Consumer Staples and Real Estate sectors were safe havens – the only two sectors to advance.
– Foreign equities declined, but US stocks took the brunt of the selling last week. Forty countries outperformed US equities.
– Crude oil fell below $70/bbl, and Bitcoin is on the cusp of another lower low in a downtrend that has formed since its March peak.
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Market Outlook – Bull Market Enters its Doubting Buffett stage
World Wrap
– Global equities climbed modestly, while Treasuries and Commodities declined.
– Sector performance was mixed and uneven. Large Cap Value stocks outperformed.
– Emerging markets declined, weighed down by falling prices in China and Brazil.
– Prices on fixed income fell broadly, and the dollar rebounded. Oil fell 5%, and Bitcoin fell 7%.
Market Outlook – Complacency Prevails
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%