– Big caps are challenging records set during the 90s bubble. US Equities will likely close the year at least 30% higher for 2019 – the best annual return since 1997.
– Best return for Large Growth since 1998 and 2nd +30% return this decade. The 90s saw 3yrs with rtns above 30%, while the 80s and 00s each saw only one.
– The trade deficit in U.S. goods declined to the lowest short fall in three years as exports increased and imports declined.
– Fed has added nearly $500 billion in cash to repo markets over the last 3 months, reversing around half of the balance sheet drawdown that took over 3 years.
Archive
Market Outlook – MRI climbs to 91 on worsening valuations
– Market Risk Index climbs to 91% on worsening valuations.
– Investor psychology unchanged, but individual indicators still hitting new extremes.
– Rydex Ratio new cycle high, lowest equity put/call ratio and longest stretch of positive Leveraged ETF Sentiment since January 2018.
– Breadth has been strengthening throughout December, implying higher prices in 2020.
– 80% of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average.
World Wrap
– Stocks and risk assets climbed, while US Treasuries declined. REITs had the best week, snapping back after the previous week’s sell off.
– Tech sector is flirting with a 50% ytd advance, the best return since 2009. Outside of a rebound from a bear market, it’s the best return for the sector since 1999.
– Emerging markets rallied 2% last week. China announced it will cut tariffs for 850 imports starting Jan 1st.
– Bloomberg reports that Wall Street is questioning whether the Fed is “quietly masking extent of efforts to calm repo markets.”
Market Outlook – Euphoria is challenging the January 2018 peak
– Market Risk Index climbs above 90%.
– Both psychology and valuation in the worst 5% of readings.
– Equity return forecast falls to 2.4%.
– Betting on central banks is a crowded trade.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%