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World Wrap

World Wrap

– US Treasuries rally for the second week in a row, while all other asset classes declined. Earnings for the S&P 500 are on track for a full-year of earning declines.
– At more than $2.3 trillion, the combined market caps of Apple and Microsoft now exceed the entire Russell 2000 index and are twice the size of the Energy sector.
– Sweeping election wins by pro-democracy candidates in Hong Kong over the weekend increases pressure on Beijing after months of unrest.
– WSJ reports that U.S. cos are pulling back on investment. Capital spending by S&P 500 cos grew less than 1% in Q3 and would have fallen without Apple & Amazon.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US Equities, Treasuries, & REITs climbed – Intl equities & commodities declined. Long-maturity Treasuries snap back to end recent losing streak.
– Style boxes line up uniformly in favor of large over small & growth over value ytd. Strong rallies from Utilities and Healthcare, as Healthcare is slowly clawing its way back.
– Longer term implications of trade war include a push by China to move away from a reliance on the US dollar, according to economists at ANZ bank.
– Concerns highlighted by Fed’s twice a yr report – high corp. & hedge fund leverage, lack of liquidity in futures mkts, & low rates encouraging too much risk-taking.

Market Outlook – Nasdaq has the HOTS

Market Outlook – Nasdaq has the HOTS

– Market Risk Index improves again but in territory that’s too high for defensive investors.
– Options traders enthusiasm has hit levels that tends to precede upticks in volatility.
– NASDAQ sees simultaneous trigger of both the Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome on multiple days this week.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%