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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Mkts bounce on $2 trillion fiscal package & largest Fed intervention in US history. WSJ reports the pandemic leading to the fastest re-allocation of labor since WWII.
– 2020 has brought some of the widest dispersions between sectors and styles that we’ve ever seen. Too many to mention.
– Too much oil, not enough gold. Oil prices, down more than 65% ytd, have sunk to 17 yr lows. Meanwhile, WSJ reports a shortage of physical gold bars and coins.
– Fed intervention in corporate credit markets led to a rally in both investment grade and high yield corporate bonds.

Market Outlook – Market Risk Index moves to Neutral

Market Outlook – Market Risk Index moves to Neutral

– Market Risk Index falls below 75 for the first time since February 2019.
– McClellan hit overbought and watching for a Zweig Breadth Thrust
– Psychology is improving rapidly, but long term sentiment measures like the AAII Allocation survey have much room for improvement.
– Yield Curve hit levels this month that marked the beginnings of each of the last three recessions, none of which were accompanied by the Fed response that we saw this week.
– Quantifying the investment opportunity being presented by small and mid-cap stocks today.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Bear market unfolding at historic speed. Risk assets declining in lockstep, and Treasuries have been the only safe-haven.
– Communication Services, a smaller sector, was a standout for only declining 1.7% last week. Energy stocks have lost more than half their value year to date.
– Gold was the only asset beside Short-Intermediate Treasuries that went higher.
– Fed announces plan to buy unlimited amounts of mortgages and Treasuries. Fed is intervening everywhere it has legal authority to do so.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%