REITs bounce back and claim the number 2 spot. S&P500 and NASDAQ hit new highs. Small and mid-cap stocks, and international equities have more work to do.
Healthcare turns positive but is lagging the average sector performance by the widest spread since the Clinton health initiative in 1993.
Little progress with US-Japan trade talks last week, as US-China trade talks are set to resume this week.
Core PCE inflation falls to one-year low, 1.6% year over year. Expectations are this should keep Fed policy changes out of the headlines for a time.
Archive
Market Outlook – Psychology reaches extremes
Psychology drops into the bottom decile. Market still following the post 1998 correction script. Stories matter, but Price matters more. Click the image to download.
World Wrap
Real Estate falls to third place after a sharp drop. US Equities now lead all asset classes. FAANG stocks gain $873 billion in value ytd, nearly recouping Q4 losses. Healthcare stands out as the only sector down for the year on political concerns over growing...
Market Outlook – Monetary conditions improve again
Market Risk Index drops again as improvements to monetary condition outweigh deterioration in psychology and valuation. Drop in corporate bond yields as a short term stimulus. 1998 analog - small cap stocks are following the script. Spread between expected returns on...
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%