– Risk assets closed down but rallied late in the week as optimism builds around the idea of re-opening economies.
– The FAAM stocks are having a distortive effect on everything from styles, factors, and even how well US equities appear to be doing broadly.
– Bank of Japan announces more interventions. It will triple its allowed holdings of corporate bonds and allow unlimited purchases of government bonds.
– Historic week for oil markets as futures price for May delivery went negative. Storage is full. Oil demand has dropped to what it looked like in the 1960s.
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Market Outlook – Investor Psychology Bottoms Out
– Psychology readings have bottomed as higher prices are beginning to sway sentiment.
– It’s too early to think about bear markets or recessions ending when growth in monetary aggregates is still accelerating.
– A combination of higher stock prices and falling earnings estimates has pushed PE ratios back to their bull market peak.
– And, a look at our daily psychology point total for bear market rally clues…
World Wrap
– Mixed week – a big rally for US equities, a mild rally for Intl equities, and sell offs for commodities and Real Estate.
– A severe bear market for some sectors but now a milder correction for others. FAAAM stocks are driving much of the style and factor performance anomalies.
– Congress is looking to pass another $470b in aid this week. Meanwhile, the Fed has injected $1.5T of its own aid since the end of February.
– OPEC gambit fails. Oil prices are hitting levels not seen in over 20 years, as coronavirus crushes demand.
Market Outlook – Psychology improvement stops just shy of best 20% of readings
– Market Risk Index falls to 37.8%.
– Bear market and Fed action have led to record S&P 500 stock concentration
– Buy the Dip Composite and yield curve updates
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%