– Stocks & commodities moved higher – bonds & REITs lower. We plot the MSCI USA Index total return for US stocks, and the index reached a new high on Friday.
– Big bounce from Transports, Industrials, Energy and Finance. S&P 500 less than an 0.2% move from a new high.
– While not close to all-time highs, four countries finished the week at 52 week highs – France, Ireland, Japan and Russia.
– Fed widely expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wed. China’s state bank urged the country’s banks to step up application of “blockchain” and embrace “digital finance.”
Archive
Market Outlook: Yield Curve Reverts to Positive Slope
– Market Risk Index drops slightly on a modest improvement in monetary conditions.
– The yield curve reverts to a positive slope. Inside, you’ll find every historical example in the last half century.
World Wrap
– Stocks & REITs rallied. Bonds were flat, and commodities declined. S&P 500 finished the week less than 1% away from new highs. REITS up almost 30% ytd.
– Size and value factors outperformed last week. Financials bounced 2.5%, but the big 4 US bank Q3 eps rpts have revealed slowed growth in lending.
– Boris Johnson expected to put Brexit deal draft through parliament vote this week. WSJ reports global policy uncertainty index at all-time highs.
– Fed now injecting both permanent & temporary liquidity into mkts and again expanding balance sheet. JP Morgan reports that money mkt stress likely to worsen.
Market Outlook: Economy at crossroads
– Psychology and Valuation push Market Risk Index close to cycle highs.
– Economic releases highlighting an economy at a crossroads and likely a binary outcome for stocks – either pretty good or very bad.
– Total corporate payouts have exceeded free cash flow for 5+yrs, pushing corporate borrowings to nearly half of GDP.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%