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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Stocks & commodities moved higher – bonds & REITs lower. We plot the MSCI USA Index total return for US stocks, and the index reached a new high on Friday.
– Big bounce from Transports, Industrials, Energy and Finance. S&P 500 less than an 0.2% move from a new high.
– While not close to all-time highs, four countries finished the week at 52 week highs – France, Ireland, Japan and Russia.
– Fed widely expected to cut rates by 25bps on Wed. China’s state bank urged the country’s banks to step up application of “blockchain” and embrace “digital finance.”

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Stocks & REITs rallied. Bonds were flat, and commodities declined. S&P 500 finished the week less than 1% away from new highs. REITS up almost 30% ytd.
– Size and value factors outperformed last week. Financials bounced 2.5%, but the big 4 US bank Q3 eps rpts have revealed slowed growth in lending.
– Boris Johnson expected to put Brexit deal draft through parliament vote this week. WSJ reports global policy uncertainty index at all-time highs.
– Fed now injecting both permanent & temporary liquidity into mkts and again expanding balance sheet. JP Morgan reports that money mkt stress likely to worsen.

Market Outlook: Economy at crossroads

Market Outlook: Economy at crossroads

– Psychology and Valuation push Market Risk Index close to cycle highs.
– Economic releases highlighting an economy at a crossroads and likely a binary outcome for stocks – either pretty good or very bad.
– Total corporate payouts have exceeded free cash flow for 5+yrs, pushing corporate borrowings to nearly half of GDP.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%