– Broad rally in global financial assets – commodities have jumped ahead in 2025 with a strong performance.
– Uniform up week across most sectors, styles, and factors. Healthcare was an exception, as the sector closed lower for the week.
– Strong outperformance by emerging markets, driven by a 6% weekly gain in China.
– The dollar and US Treasury yields softened last week, easing investor concerns about the persistent increase in yields.
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Market Outlook – Inaugural Expectations
World Wrap
– Global equities and fixed income are starting 2025 with a decline, while commodities are up sharply in higher oil prices.
– In a mainly down week for sectors, styles, and factors – Energy, Healthcare, and Materials stocks climbed.
– International equities outperformed US stocks last week. Still, over 60% of countries have officially entered correction territory.
– Commodities have started the year with a strong start – crude oil is up nearly 7% ytd. Treasuries have continued to sell off, and the 30Yr is flirting with 5% yields.
Market Outlook – Who’s Swimming Naked?
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%