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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Commodities were the biggest winner. Intl equities & US Treasuries also moved higher, but US equities and real estate declined.
– Unusual week under the surface. Stocks declined broadly, but value stocks were up. More than half of sectors were higher, all at the expense Tech stocks.
– The US dollar has declined more than 3% this month, and it’s fueling higher prices for TIPS, commodities, and emerging markets.
– Enthusiasm for silver pushed the metal higher by more than 15% last week, and its ytd return is now higher than gold. Precious metals lead all commodities.

Market Outlook – Watching the Silent Generation for Clues

Market Outlook – Watching the Silent Generation for Clues

– Market Risk Index climbs to 82.7%, still in elevated drawdown risk territory.
– Equity Put/Call ratio hit the lowest levels since September 2000 this week.
РPros (and Robinhood Millenials) might be embracing the equity rally, but the silent generation is not.
– Leverage chasing hit extremes this week, and it implies high volatility is not going away.
– And…this best this week had to offer in charts.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Equities rallied, and commodities declined modestly. Treasuries lead all major asset classes.
– US stocks rallied, but the NASDAQ lost 1% last week on a pullback in Tech stocks. The largest five cos make up 40% of the NASDAQ.
– Margin lending & enthusiasm for equities is growing in China, but it wasn’t enough to keep China’s stock market from declining over 4%.
– The dollar has declined four weeks in a row, and economically sensitive commodities like copper and lumber continued to rally.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%