– Commodities and global equities bounced back, and the price of Treasury bonds fell. Commodities advanced 7% for the week.
– Styles and factors imply that last week was a pure risk on rally. Only Low Volatility, Healthcare, Utilities, and Staples declined.
– Emerging markets rallied 4.8% to push the year to date return back into positive territory.
– Broad rally across commodities, from precious metals to Energy, Lumber, and copper.
– Market Risk Index drops below the 80th percentile.
– More signs of deteriorating breadth on market rallies, but no smoking gun.
– Global equities and commodities declined, while Treasuries rallied. Intl equities and commodities were particularly hard hit.
– Value stocks and economically sensitive sectors struggled. Energy stocks dropped 7%.
– Emerging markets fell nearly 5%, as Chinese equities declined by more than 7%. China is down 18.9% ytd.
– International fixed income yields moved higher as the US dollar rallied. The lumber slide continues, falling another 10% last week.
– Big drop in Michigan’s Sentiment Survey, unusual outside of a recession or bear market.
– Hindenburg Omen and Titanic Syndrome sell signals in tandem.
– NASDAQ High Low Logic Index creeps higher.
%
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
