– A more traditional risk off week as global stocks and commodities declined while yields on global fixed income fell.
– Utilities was the only sector to move higher. Large Growth was the biggest style box underperformer.
– Emerging markets outperformed Developed markets with declines being mitigated by a 2.5% rebound in Chinese equities.
– Bitcoin rallied 14% amid continued speculation surrounding a possible Bitcoin spot ETF.
Archive
Market Outlook – Volatility, tighter money, and a break from euphoria.
World Wrap
– A stagflationary performance week with Global stocks and bonds selling off, and Commodities rallying.
– Energy and Consumer Staples were the only safe havens. Five of nine style boxes closed out the week in red for the year.
– China sank to new bear market lows in US dollar terms. The country’s bear market is four months away from its third birthday.
– Yields on 10Yr Treasuries climbed to new highs, stopping just shy of 5%. It’s the highest level since the summer of 2007.
Market Outlook – Patience has a fat yield
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%