– Psychology composite gives bear market rally vibes, but classic signs of capitulation are still out of reach.
– Daily Psychology Composite point totals are the best since Feb 2020.
– Conditions are ripe for a bear market rally more than a bull market.
– A dramatic week, but none of the ingredients for a Powell pivot.
– Another month with ISM Price index above 75 is not great news for stock market investors.
– Bond market liquidity has been evaporating faster than any time since the early 80s.
– Corporate insiders are starting to show mild interest in buying stocks.
– Market Risk Index climbs on Psychology Composite move back into worst 20% of readings
– Sell in Mid-Term May is here.
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%