Research
Market Outlook – Sharp drop in MRI
– Psychology composite gives bear market rally vibes, but classic signs of capitulation are still out of reach.
World Wrap
– A more traditional, disinflationary risk-off week with a rally in Treasuries and a selloff in global risk assets.
– Consumer staples was the only sector to finish the week above water.
– China’s stock market was flat, and the country has started easing financial conditions.
– Carnage in crypto markets – TerraUSD declined over 90% and its reserve asset LUNA lost all of its value.
Market Outlook – Is it over?
– Daily Psychology Composite point totals are the best since Feb 2020.
– Conditions are ripe for a bear market rally more than a bull market.
– A dramatic week, but none of the ingredients for a Powell pivot.
World Wrap
– Sharp decline in international equities, and crude oil gains pushed commodities indices higher.
– Energy stocks climbed more than 10% in a week – now up 50.8% year-to-date.
– China dropped 6.9% in a week, pulling emerging markets down 4.1%. China has fallen 40% in the last year.
– The strong rally in the dollar continues. US Dollar advanced 0.7% for the week and is up 14% over the last 12 months.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 53.5%
- Monetary 74.3%
- Valuation 94.0%
- Trend 85.5%