Research
Market Outlook – “Dumb Money” takes US Equity Futures Exposure to New Record.
World Wrap
– Commodities rallied – US Stocks advanced modestly – and International stocks and prices on US Treasuries declined.
– Mixed week for sectors and styles with 6 of 11 sectors advancing. Energy stocks shot higher, climbing 7%.
– More than 3 out of 4 countries declined last week, but emerging markets managed a positive week with help from a 11.5% rally in China.
– Stronger than expected jobs report sent Treasury yields higher, tempering expectations for additional rate cuts.
Q3 2024 World Wrap
– Global financial assets rallied during the third quarter, with real estate and international equities leading the way. Commodities declined on lower oil prices.
– Q3 was good for unloved areas of the mkt. Small caps and value stocks outperformed. Utilities rallied 19.4% to become 2024’s best-performing sector.
– Emerging markets outperformed on strength from China. Its equity market climbed almost 24%, with most gains made in the last week of the quarter.
– Gold prices bounced 12.9%, continuing a steady pace of new all-time highs throughout the quarter.
Market Outlook – We see those nickels…and a steamroller.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 93.2%
- Monetary 42.9%
- Valuation 99.9%
- Trend 45.2%