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Q1 2024 World Wrap

Q1 2024 World Wrap

– Commodities and US Equities are running neck and neck for best performing asset class in 2024.
– Momentum led other factors by a long shot in Q1 2024. Small caps continue to struggle, and Energy stocks are outpacing Tech stocks.
– Intl equities are up, but lagging. China declined, but avoided a new low. Should China’s poor performance persist, it will be the 4th straight yr of declines.
– Mostly declines in global fixed income for the quarter. US High Yield and Treasury bills are the only two sectors with positive returns ytd.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Global equities rallied, led by US stocks. Commodities declined.
– Broad rally among styles, factors, and sectors. Momentum and Growth were the biggest winners.
– Two out of every three countries we follow advanced, but emerging markets lagged on declines in Chinese equities.
– The US Dollar and prices on US Treasuries finished the week higher on a dovish sounding Fed.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Commodities rallied, while Global stocks and bonds declined.
– In a down week, 5 of 11 sectors managed to advance, led by a 3.8% advance in Energy stocks.
– Emerging markets were flat, buoyed by a 3.3% move higher in China.
– Both Crude oil and 2Yr Treasury yields climbed to higher highs last week, in a clear sign that inflation concerns are coming to the forefront again.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US Equities and Commodities declined, while International stocks and US Treasuries rallied.
– Mid-cap stocks outperformed as did interest rate sensitive sectors. Utilities performed better than all sectors, styles, and factors.
– Fairly broad rally internationally, with nearly 3 of 4 countries participating. China was an exception, declining more than US stocks.
– Both Gold and Bitcoin made new all-time highs in the same week.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%