– Psychology deterioration pushes MRI back above 50%.
– Record drop in Consumer Confidence Present Situation Index, but also a record increase in expectations for business improvement and job market.
– Falling earnings and higher stock prices push the Forward PE to above 20X, the highest level since May 2002.
– Highest M2 Growth since 1983
– Buybacks expected to fall by half
– Retail trading activity goes parabolic on zero commissions and a stock market drop
Archive
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%