Research
Q4 2024 World Wrap
– 2024 was another dominant year for U.S. equities, climbing more than 25%. The average asset class performance, excluding U.S. stocks, was between 6% and 7%.
– Diverging outcomes emerged among styles and factors, with most of the spoils favoring growth and large-cap stocks. The cap-weighted S&P 500 outperformed the average stock over the last two years by the widest margin since 1999.
– International equities lagged U.S. stocks, failing to generate double-digit returns. Developed markets underperformed U.S. Treasury bills. Argentina was a notable exception, with its stock market doubling due to President Milei’s reforms.
– Long-term Treasury yields finished the year at their highest levels, defying the typical script for how bonds react to Fed rate cuts. The dollar closed out the year at two-year highs.
Market Outlook – Making the Who’s Who List
World Wrap
– Global financial assets rallied during the third quarter, with real estate and international equities leading the way. Commodities declined on lower oil prices.
– Q3 was good for unloved areas of the mkt. Small caps and value stocks outperformed. Utilities rallied 19.4% to become 2024’s best-performing sector.
– Emerging markets outperformed on strength from China. Its equity market climbed almost 24%, with most gains made in the last week of the quarter.
– Gold prices bounced 12.9%, continuing a steady pace of new all-time highs throughout the quarter.
Market Outlook – Margin Debt Surge
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.8%
- Monetary 66.2%
- Valuation 100.0%
- Trend 36.6%