Research
Market Outlook – A Tax on Capital
World Wrap
– U.S. stocks gained 0.1%, while international stocks and REITs slipped as strong payrolls lifted yields. Oil’s 9.8% jump led commodities.
– Energy rose 2.3% and tech gained 1.1%, while consumer discretionary fell 2.0% as strong jobs revived rate-hike concerns.
– Latin America gained 4.3% on oil strength, while the Middle East fell 1.7% and Europe lost 0.8% amid Iran tension and higher yields.
– Long Treasuries, munis and gold fell as strong jobs pushed yields higher. Oil surged 9.8% while the dollar slipped 0.5%.
World Wrap
– U.S. stocks and Treasuries gained, while REITs and commodities fell as Nvidia’s outlook and cheaper oil offset a hawkish Jackson Hole message.
– Technology led a narrow rally after Nvidia’s blockbuster outlook, while energy and healthcare fell 2% and most factors and sectors lost ground.
– Vietnam surged 5.3% on a larger FTSE weight, while Taiwan gained 3.0% on AI optimism. Oil-sensitive Colombia tumbled 6.4%.
– Bitcoin jumped 9.9%, while oil, gold and silver sank. Long Treasuries rallied, but a 0.8% dollar gain punished unhedged foreign bonds.