Research
World Wrap
– Commodities rallied, but they were the exception. Global equites and fixed income declined.
– Momentum and Energy stocks were a safe haven in week where declines were pervasive.
– Emerging markets climbed on strength in China, India, and Mexico.
– Gold spiked to another all-time high, and Oil prices climbed above $87 per barrel.
Market Outlook – Bullishness among newsletter writers is pervasive
Q1 2024 World Wrap
– Commodities and US Equities are running neck and neck for best performing asset class in 2024.
– Momentum led other factors by a long shot in Q1 2024. Small caps continue to struggle, and Energy stocks are outpacing Tech stocks.
– Intl equities are up, but lagging. China declined, but avoided a new low. Should China’s poor performance persist, it will be the 4th straight yr of declines.
– Mostly declines in global fixed income for the quarter. US High Yield and Treasury bills are the only two sectors with positive returns ytd.
Market Outlook – Record Divergence in US Equity Futures Sentiment
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 98.1%
- Monetary 30.4%
- Valuation 98.7%
- Trend 25.9%