Research
World Wrap
– A 50bp rate cut from the Fed drove global equities and commodities higher, but Treasuries and real estate declined. The Dow S&P 500 set new all-time highs.
– Eight of eleven sectors advanced – Healthcare, Staples, and Real Estate sectors declined.
– Emerging markets outperformed on a sharp rebound in Chinese equities.
– Gold prices climbed to another new all-time high. Bitcoin rallied but fell shy of breaking above its August high.
Market Outlook – Soft-Landing, Mission Accomplished?
World Wrap
– Broad rally among all major asset classes – fixed income, equites, and commodities.
– NVDA rebound drove Tech sector higher by more than 7%. Energy was the only sector to decline this week.
– Emerging markets underperformed as weakness in China has weighed on the indices for all of Q3.
– Federal Reserve is set to reduce interest rates this week – markets are torn between a 25bps and 50bps cut. Gold made a new all time high.
Market Outlook – Can Soft-Landing Optimism Hold?
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 93.2%
- Monetary 42.9%
- Valuation 99.9%
- Trend 45.2%