Research
World Wrap
– Commodities rallied, while Global stocks and bonds declined.
– In a down week, 5 of 11 sectors managed to advance, led by a 3.8% advance in Energy stocks.
– Emerging markets were flat, buoyed by a 3.3% move higher in China.
– Both Crude oil and 2Yr Treasury yields climbed to higher highs last week, in a clear sign that inflation concerns are coming to the forefront again.
Market Outlook – Welcome back to the Casino
World Wrap
– US Equities and Commodities declined, while International stocks and US Treasuries rallied.
– Mid-cap stocks outperformed as did interest rate sensitive sectors. Utilities performed better than all sectors, styles, and factors.
– Fairly broad rally internationally, with nearly 3 of 4 countries participating. China was an exception, declining more than US stocks.
– Both Gold and Bitcoin made new all-time highs in the same week.
Market Outlook – Third longest yield curve inversion since 1920.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 98.1%
- Monetary 30.4%
- Valuation 98.7%
- Trend 25.9%