Archive

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US stocks rallied while fixed income, real estate, and international equities declined. The S&P 500 closed the week at a new all time high.
– Large Cap Growth stocks had a strong week, which came at the expense of value stocks. Only five of 11 sectors advanced.
– China declined almost 6% on the week, putting it less than 5% away from taking out its 2022 bear market low.
– US Treasuries sold off, and the 10 Year yield has climbed back above 4%. As yields have risen, so has the value of the US Dollar.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Cap-weighted US Equity indices rebounded to recover losses from the first week of January.
– Rally in US stocks was narrow, centered around big tech. 7 of 11 sectors declined.
– Emerging markets declined. China’s equity market continues to struggle – China is only 11% above its 2022 bear market low.
– Sell the news – Bitcoin sold off on ETF launch after months of excitement and anticipation.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Commodities rallied on an oil price rebound, and global stocks and bonds started the first week of 2024 with declines.
– Last year’s worst performing sectors, Energy and Utilities, advanced, while last year’s biggest winner (Tech stocks) fell by 4%.
– Frontier markets with heavy commodity exposure started the year with strong rallies.
– Natural gas and oil were strong, and the dollar rebounded, up more than 1% for the week.

Q4 2023 World Wrap

Q4 2023 World Wrap

– US Equities outperformed global assets by a wide margin in 2023. Performance was big-cap driven, with the S&P 500 beating the median stock by the most since 1999.
– Sector, style, and factor performance was widely divergent – large cap tech was 2023’s biggest winner. Tech outperformed Utilities by the most since 1999.
– Emerging markets lagged developed markets, driven by weakness in China. China was the 3rd worst performing country in 2023 and has declined three years in a row.
– Global fixed income finished the year with respectable returns, with all of the gains coming in Q4. In a sign that animal spirits have returned, Bitcoin closed the year up 150%.

%

Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%