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World Wrap
– U.S. stocks rose; REITs led as yields eased. Oil fell a third straight week, leaving commodities mixed; non-U.S. equities were little changed.
– Tech & communication services outperformed; real estate rebounded on lower rates. Energy lagged and banks flickered on credit-risk headlines.
– Overseas, Europe eked a small weekly gain while EM appetite cooled on outflows; China property strains kept country moves mixed.
– Yields slipped, lifting Treasuries and core credit; gold stayed hot as the dollar softened, while oil logged a third weekly loss.
Market Outlook – Greater Fool Theory Goes Mainstream
World Wrap
– Risk-off week: U.S. & intl stocks fell on renewed U.S.–China tariff threats; REITs lagged; core bonds near flat; broad commodities mixed.
– Defensives led: utilities & staples eked gains, while energy and real estate sank; tech slipped as China-trade headlines hit growth.
– Overseas equities fell; Europe/China-sensitive markets lagged, Japan’s early pop faded as the late-week selloff hit globally.
– Rates whipsawed; Treasuries roughly flat, credit softer; dollar jumped while gold hovered near records and oil slid toward 2025 lows.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%