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World Wrap

World Wrap

– US and international stocks edged higher, but commodities led as oil surged 5.6%. REITs rose while long Treasuries fell as yields climbed.
– Energy soared 7.3% as oil rallied, while consumer discretionary fell 1.9%. Growth, momentum and value factors all gained more than 2%.
– Emerging markets jumped 2.7% as Korea surged 13.3%, fueled by an AI-chip rebound. Taiwan gained 4.3%, while China fell 3.1%.
– Long Treasuries fell as the 30-year yield hit 5.25%, its highest auction yield in 25 years. Oil jumped 5.6%, while the dollar was flat.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– U.S. stocks led as the S&P 500 hit a record, Treasuries rallied, REITs were mixed and oil’s 7.6% plunge weighed on commodities.
– Growth ruled: technology jumped 7.2% and momentum 4.2% on AI earnings and softer jobs, while falling oil dragged energy down 3.2%.
– Developed markets gained 2.3%, but emerging markets slipped 0.4% as Korea sank 7.2% amid renewed pressure on its AI-chip leaders.
– Treasuries and credit rallied after weak payrolls. Gold +7.2% and silver +10.0% surged, oil fell 7.6%, and the dollar eased 0.2%.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

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