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World Wrap
– Global equities declined for the week, while Treasuries and commodities remained flat.
– Most sectors, styles, and factors were in the red, except for Energy and Utilities, which finished the week higher.
– Internationally, there were pockets of strength, particularly in Latin American and Emerging European stocks.
– Gold prices climbed 3%, setting another new all-time high.

Market Outlook – Toggling Tariffs re-inverts the yield curve

World Wrap
– Intl equities have opened up a sizable lead over key global asset classes after another strong week. U.S. equities are in the red YTD after falling more than 3%.
– While U.S. stocks are down YTD, 9 of 11 sectors remain positive for the year. The decliners – Cons Discretion & Tech – have weighed on highly concentrated indices.
– A powerful, broad rally swept across international markets. German stocks climbed more than 6%, reaching a new all-time high.
– Trade and tariff policy uncertainty weighed on the U.S. dollar and Treasuries, sending the dollar down 3.5% – its largest one-week drop since 2022.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%