– US Equities and Commodities rallied. They are also the only two major asset classes with positive year-to-date returns.
– All style boxes advanced, but smaller cap stocks and value stocks underperformed. Growth and Tech outperformed.
– International equities were flat, with slightly more than half of countries advancing. More than 60% of countries are down year-to-date.
– US Treasuries declined, and breakevens on US TIPS are starting to signal a rebound in the rate of inflation.
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Market Outlook – It’s Officially a Split Market
World Wrap
– Prices on US Equities and Treasuries advanced. Foreign equities were flat, and commodities declined.
– The further up the Capitalization and Growth scales, the better the stock did. The smaller and cheaper, the worse stocks fared.
– China declined nearly 4%. China’s stock market is roughly half the value it was nearly 17 years ago, when the globalization era peaked.
– Sharp weekly drop in crude oil prices hurt Commodity indices. US Treasuries and the Dollar rallied.
Market Outlook – Asset Managers Are Record Long
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%