– Stocks and bonds were flat, and commodities experienced a broad decline.
– Sectors were mixed, but small cap stocks were strong across the board, rallying more than 1%.
– China fell more than 3.5% setting a new 52 week low. This coming February will mark three years since the bull market peak in China.
– Crude oil is down more than 25% off its September peak, falling below $70bbl last week.
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Market Outlook – Market Risk Index climbs above 80%
World Wrap
– Bonds outperformed stocks last week, and commodities declined on falling oil prices.
– Interest rate sensitive sectors and factors outperformed – big bounce in small cap stocks.
– The median country outperformed the cap-weighted international indices. China held back emerging market indices.
– Broad rally across fixed income sectors, and the price of Gold set a new all time high.
Market Outlook – Front-Running the Cowbell
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%