– All key asset classes advanced. Commodities were the biggest winner on a sharp rebound in oil prices.
– Not a broad rally across factors. Mid and Small Caps declined. Energy and Utilities saw the largest gains.
– International equities rallied. Israel’s equity market declined 8.8% after the Hamas attack.
– Fixed income markets advanced, and yields fell. Gold prices also rebounded by more than 5%.
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Market Outlook – Colicky Bull Market Turns One
World Wrap
– US Equities managed a small advance in a week where all other major asset classes declined.
– Large Cap and Large Cap growth were the only styles to move higher, driven by a bounce in Technology stocks.
– Fairly broad declines across international markets with only seven of 44 countries we track moving higher, including the United States.
– Yield Curve is beginning to steepen, but it’s coming from the long end of the curve. 30Yr Treasury yields are approaching 5% for the first time since 2007.
Market Outlook – Bond Vigilantes attempt to make the Fed Model relevant again.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%