– All asset classes moved higher with the exception of Real Estate.
– Most sectors advanced, but the Energy, Technology and Consumer Discretion sectors were notably soft.
– Emerging markets struggled again, except it was the rest of Asia dragging down emerging stocks instead of China last week.
– Another slide for Lumber prices, while Bitcoin continued to climb sharply.
Archive
Market Outlook – Don’t become insensitive to a speculative environment.
– Market Risk Index edged higher.
– Technical Indicators, and market breadth, hurt Psychology, but nothing is sounding an alarm.
– PPI Inflation moves even higher.
– Never forget about the margin of safety.
World Wrap
– Equities advanced broadly, while prices of US Treasuries and commodities declined.
– Strong week for Financials and Utilities. Consumer Staples was the only sector that didn’t finish in the green.
– Both lumber and oil sold off sharply, while Bitcoin extended its gains for another week.
– Unemployment rate fell to 5.4% in July, and bonds sold off across the board.
Market Outlook – Consumers are confident but not positive.
– Monetary conditions improve to 50th percentile.
– Widest gap between Consumer Confidence and Consumer Sentiment in over 50 years.
– De-Trended Equity Put/Call ratio signals buy the same week the market made new highs for the first since the summer of 1998.
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%