– Market Risk Index climbs above 80% on enthusiastic investor sentiment.
– Seeing more crosscurrents that are difficult to reconcile within both the monetary and psychology composites than ever.
– Our purely regression driven, valuation based return forecast for US equities has fallen to less than 1 percent, ironic, because we created it to push our forecasts higher.
– And, this week’s best charts…
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%