– Stock and bond prices moved higher during Thanksgiving week, while Commodities declined.
– All sectors advanced except Energy. Energy has had a terrible run. $10K invested in the sector 5yrs ago would be with a little over $8,700 today, including dividends.
– Trump restores tariffs on steel & aluminum from Argentina and Brazil. China sees a surprise recovery in manufacturing during Nov, advancing to an 8-mo high.
– Fed policy shift – Financial Times reports that Fed might introduce a rule to let inflation overshoot a 2% target to stimulate price growth.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%