– Last week was good for almost all risk assets, except REITS, which closed down sharply by more than 3%.
– Almost every sector, style, and factor advanced last week. Small & Mid-Cap Growth and low volatility stocks bucked the trend and declined.
– China’s industrial output growth beat expectations in November, while IHS Markit’s preliminary December data shows Eurozone’s manufacturing recession is worsening.
– PIMCO, State Street, and Blackrock believe bonds aren’t pricing in a likely shift coming at the Fed to let inflation run hotter, making TIPS attractive.
Archive
Market Outlook – Geared ETF investors are levering up again
– Market Risk Index climbs to 89.7.
– Sharp reversal in commodities turns trend positive. Copper breaks above 200dma for the first time since spring.
– Fed Balance sheet expansion over the last 3-months (nearly $400 billion) is beginning to creep its way into monetary base.
– Geared ETF investors are levering up – in the top 10% of readings.
– Recent momentum and breadth signals may imply a reset on the bull market peak, but MRI suggest this is arguably one of the riskiest momentum markets to chase.
World Wrap
– A strong Friday jobs report made the difference for US stocks, turning a down week into a positive one. Treasuries declined, and commodities rallied.
– Consumer, Industrials, and Technology stocks declined. US-China trade continued to decline in October, with imports dropping 4.8% and exports down more than 17%.
– Saudi Aramco raised $25.6 billion in the world’s largest IPO, putting the valuation at $1.7 trillion, about half a trillion higher than Apple.
– Business Insider reports that unwillingness of top 4 US banks to lend combined with surge in demand for funding from hedge funds may explain recent turmoil in repo market.
Market Outlook – Psychology Readings approaching market cycle peak
– Market Risk Index breaks higher to 88.4%
– Investor psychology is edging closer to market cycle highs from early 2018.
– Investor’s Intelligence registers its most bullish reading since the market peak in January 2018.
– Commodity price trend turns defensive.
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%