– Global equities rose again, as did commodities, while bonds and interest rate sensitive assets took a breather last week.
– Monster one-week snapback rally in both small cap and value stocks last week, which has market watchers asking if it rang a bell signaling a better days ahead for value.
– Oil prices set to surge after drone attack on Saudi oil field takes out half the country’s oil production temporarily. China industrial production at 17-yr low.
– Fed is widely expected to cut rates by 25 basis points this week. WSJ reports warning signs coming from high yield market.
Archive
Market Outlook: Wild Swing in 10 Day Arms Index
– MRI improves, but not much.
– Psychology composite continues to improve, but as a result of technicals. Sentiment related improvements have stalled.
– 10Day ARMS Index makes a wild swing, which should provide insight into what kind of market rally this really is.
World Wrap
– Risk assets rallied collectively for the second week in a row. Bonds sold off modestly. US equities are just shy of 2019 highs.
– The largest concentration of US Zombie companies is in the Healthcare sector, 2019’s second worst performing sector ytd. Zombies are cos with interest pmts higher than op profits.
– Earnings expectations for the S&P 500 in Q3 are for addl y/y declines, the third quarter in a row of negative y/y growth.
– ECB is expected to unveil additional stimulus plans at its policy meeting this week. 20bps cut expected, but concern is growing over negative interest rates.
Market Outlook: Advance Decline line high amidst sluggish performance from the average stock.
– Market Risk Index worsens, locked in defensive territory.
– Advance/Decline high occurring while the average stock is lagging and a lot of stocks are making new lows.
– Fed has enough evidence for an aggressive cut, but buyback fueled S&P 500 approaching its highs makes it less likely.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%