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World Wrap
– Global equities climbed. Commodities, Treasuries, and interest rate sensitive assets like Real Estate declined.
– It was a strong weak for Large Cap growth & Tech stocks. Meanwhile – Value, Energy, & High yield stocks struggled.
– International equities advanced, but it wasn’t a broad move. Twenty-one of the 45 countries we track declined week over week.
– The US Dollar jumped 1.8% and is now up 11.5% year to date.
Market Outlook – Stagflation is official, according to ISM
Q2 2022 World Wrap
– Global equities and fixed income declined in the second quarter. Commodities moved higher by 2% on the strength of crude oil.
– All sectors styles and factors declined in the second quarter. Energy was strong up until June, when the sector crashed by more than 22%.
– China shrugged off global market weakness and advanced more than 3% during the quarter. It was one of only two countries to see higher stock prices in Q2.
– Crude oil rallied 10% during the quarter – the Dollar was up 6.5% – and Bitcoin plunged by nearly 60%.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%