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Q3 2021 World Wrap

Q3 2021 World Wrap

– Q3 asset class performance implied a shift toward stagflation concerns. Commodities were strong, and international equities declined more than 4%.
– Pure Growth and Technology dominated Q3, but Pure Value, Energy, and Financials still hold a sizeable lead in 2021 ytd performance.
– Emerging markets continued to soften, declining 8% for the quarter and closing in negative territory ytd. Concerns about credit and leverage in China linger.
– Lumber passed the baton to Natural Gas, which had a monster 59.6% return in Q3, while Lumber declined 14.8%.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%