– Q3 asset class performance implied a shift toward stagflation concerns. Commodities were strong, and international equities declined more than 4%.
– Pure Growth and Technology dominated Q3, but Pure Value, Energy, and Financials still hold a sizeable lead in 2021 ytd performance.
– Emerging markets continued to soften, declining 8% for the quarter and closing in negative territory ytd. Concerns about credit and leverage in China linger.
– Lumber passed the baton to Natural Gas, which had a monster 59.6% return in Q3, while Lumber declined 14.8%.
Archive
Market Outlook – Short-Term Sentiment turns negative for the first time in 11 months.
– Monetary composite drives MRI higher. ISM Price Index is still running too hot.
– Short-term sentiment composite ends an eleven-month streak of positive readings.
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%