– US equities fell for the second straight week – the first back to back weekly declines since May. Treasuries rallied as did International equities.
– It was a difficult week for both the best and worst sectors, as both Tech and Energy stocks fell by more than 4%. Materials was the only sector to climb.
– International equities bucked the trend with US stocks and moved higher, almost solely on the back of European equities.-
– After persistent declines for months, the dollar has started climbing for a few weeks. It’s boosting the price of US Treasuries, and oil is falling.
Archive
Market Outlook – Call Option Buyers are Doubling Down
– Market Risk Index climbs to 91.8%.
– Investor Psychology composite risk score is higher than any time outside of a string of readings between January and March 2000.
– August’s Bond Momentum sell signal is fragile, but holding on.
– Several charts that put…options speculation into perspective.
World Wrap
– Treasuries became a safe-haven again as volatility picked up and risk assets declined.
– Growth, momentum, and Tech were hit hardest last week. Interest rate sensitive sectors held up better while Treasuries rallied.
– Bitcoin was off nearly 11%. Lumber’s decline was modest given how large the ytd gains are.
– Copper prices managed to climb modestly as most other commodities were selling off.
Market Outlook – Investor Psychology Breaks Dot-Com Era Record
– Market Risk Index climbs to 91.5% with a complete absence of support from sentiment and valuations.
– Psychology daily point total breaks the dot-com era record. The composite crosses into the worst 1 percent of readings.
– After being bullish on long duration bonds since early 2019, our Long Bond Momentum finally registers a sell signal.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%