Archive
World Wrap
– International equities surged ahead of all major asset groups this week, while US stocks posted modest gains as markets largely shrugged off the ongoing government shutdown.
– US healthcare and utilities sectors led the week as mixed economic data and a stalled jobs report sent investors into defensive areas despite market record highs.
– International & EM rallied – Asia led with China/HK strength. Europe chalked up its best week since April on rate-cut bets and tech momentum.
– US fixed income sectors advanced as yields fell, while gold rose and the US dollar slipped on softer economic data and persistent shutdown concerns.
World Wrap
– US equities were flat to modestly down, international equities underperformed, treasuries gave back gains, REITs held up, and commodities (led by gold) saw small upside.
– Within US factors/sectors, defensives and energy outpaced growth and tech amid mixed data and shifting rate expectations.
– EM and international markets broadly lagged, with China and select frontier markets under more pressure while parts of Europe held up.
– US/intl bonds were slightly weaker, gold gained, oil was muted, and the dollar bounced as strong macro data weighed on cut odds.
Market Outlook – All Our Eggs in the AI Basket
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%