– Commodities and US Equities are running neck and neck for best performing asset class in 2024.
– Momentum led other factors by a long shot in Q1 2024. Small caps continue to struggle, and Energy stocks are outpacing Tech stocks.
– Intl equities are up, but lagging. China declined, but avoided a new low. Should China’s poor performance persist, it will be the 4th straight yr of declines.
– Mostly declines in global fixed income for the quarter. US High Yield and Treasury bills are the only two sectors with positive returns ytd.
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Market Outlook – Record Divergence in US Equity Futures Sentiment
World Wrap
– Global equities rallied, led by US stocks. Commodities declined.
– Broad rally among styles, factors, and sectors. Momentum and Growth were the biggest winners.
– Two out of every three countries we follow advanced, but emerging markets lagged on declines in Chinese equities.
– The US Dollar and prices on US Treasuries finished the week higher on a dovish sounding Fed.
Market Outlook – Three Fed Cuts in the Bush are Worth One in the Hand.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%