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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Commodities rose on Middle East tension. US equities gained, while most intl markets fell, REITs declined, and Treasuries slipped as yields rose.
– AI-led tech drove gains – semis led while defensives lagged. Breadth narrowed as fewer stocks participated in the advance.
– AI-linked Asia outperformed, but global breadth was weak – Europe, EM, and commodity exporters broadly declined.
– Yields rose on “higher-for-longer” Fed tone. Oil gained on geopolitics, gold fell, and the dollar firmed on rate expectations.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US equities broke out to new highs, led by a surge in tech; international stocks followed, Treasuries and REITs gained, while oil fell sharply as geopolitical risk eased.
– Tech, discretionary and communication led – energy lagged and utilities slipped as oil fell, rates eased, and AI/earnings favored cyclicals.
– EM beat developed – South Korea led on chip strength, Europe and Japan gained on peace hopes, and India rose more modestly.
– Treasuries, credit, high yield and munis rose – euro-area bonds and EM debt firmed. Oil fell, gold and silver rose, and the dollar eased.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

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