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World Wrap

World Wrap

– US and international stocks surged on ceasefire hopes. REITs bounced, commodities split, and oil posted its steepest weekly drop since 2020.
– Growth beat value, led by semis and big tech. Energy was the clear laggard as crude suffered its worst week since April 2020.
– International markets jumped, led by South Korea, Japan, Europe and Latin America, as ceasefire hopes and cheaper oil sparked a relief rally.
– Oil plunged and the dollar logged its biggest weekly drop since January. Bond markets swung with CPI and ceasefire headlines as Bund yields rose.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– US equities slipped while international held firmer – Treasuries weakened as yields rose, REITs lagged, commodities lifted by oil strength and inflation fears
– Defensive sectors led as cyclicals cooled – value held up better than growth as ISM signaled stagflation and pressured economically sensitive groups
– International markets were mixed – commodity exporters outperformed while parts of Asia lagged amid slowing trade signals and uneven growth data
– Yields rose across curves, pressuring bonds broadly – dollar firmed, oil stayed elevated, supporting commodities while credit spreads showed early widening pressure

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

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