Archive

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Risk stayed choppy – US stocks flat, overseas firmer – bonds steady – oil led commodities while gold/silver reversed hard on Fed-chair announcement, AI, and geopolitics.
– Small caps lagged – energy and communication services led as AI jitters hit tech – defensives held up while health care and materials trailed.
– Overseas mostly higher – Korea surged on chip strength – Hong Kong and parts of Europe firm – Vietnam and Indonesia slumped, keeping EM mixed.
– Curve steepened on Warsh – 2s/5s rallied while 10s sold off – front-end bonds firm, credit softer – dollar wobbled – oil and nat gas surged as gold fell.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– Tariff whiplash drove choppy U.S. trading – stocks slipped, REITs lagged – commodities ripped as the dollar sank and havens surged.
– Sector leadership flipped – Energy and Materials led on commodity strength – Financials, Real Estate and Utilities lagged as rates stayed firm.
– Outside the U.S., emerging markets outperformed – AI-heavy Asia led – Europe was mixed – Japan lagged as bond yields jumped and politics stirred.
– Bonds were flat overall – credit held up while munis lagged – dollar weakness lit a fire under gold, silver and natural gas, with oil higher.

%

Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

Recent Research