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World Wrap
– US Equities rebounded late to end flat as cooler inflation data offset early tech volatility, while Treasuries gained on rising 2026 rate-cut expectations.
– Tech and Growth factors lagged early due to AI valuation fatigue but recovered Friday, while defensive sectors like Healthcare and Utilities outperformed.
– International stocks were mixed; Europe rose on UK rate cuts, but Japan fell over 2.6% for the week as the BOJ hiked rates to 0.75% and bond yields hit 20y highs.
– The US Dollar rose slightly as Treasuries yields fell, while Commodities dipped due to natural gas and agriculture weakness despite a surge in gold and copper.
Market Outlook – When the Water Level Drops
World Wrap
– US stocks tread water with tech weakness and cyclical strength as Fed cuts rates; bonds got mixed and gold rallied on softer yields/dollar.
– Small caps and cyclicals outpaced mega-cap growth as AI-sector lag and soft economic data shifted leadership amid higher volatility.
– International equities were mixed; emerging markets dipped then rallied late with Fed dovish cues and China fiscal support whispers.
– Treasuries sold off on higher yields, commodities saw precious metals strength on rate hopes, and the dollar eased.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%