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World Wrap

World Wrap

– Risk-off week: U.S. & intl stocks fell on renewed U.S.–China tariff threats; REITs lagged; core bonds near flat; broad commodities mixed.
– Defensives led: utilities & staples eked gains, while energy and real estate sank; tech slipped as China-trade headlines hit growth.
– Overseas equities fell; Europe/China-sensitive markets lagged, Japan’s early pop faded as the late-week selloff hit globally.
– Rates whipsawed; Treasuries roughly flat, credit softer; dollar jumped while gold hovered near records and oil slid toward 2025 lows.

World Wrap

World Wrap

– International equities surged ahead of all major asset groups this week, while US stocks posted modest gains as markets largely shrugged off the ongoing government shutdown.
– US healthcare and utilities sectors led the week as mixed economic data and a stalled jobs report sent investors into defensive areas despite market record highs.
– International & EM rallied – Asia led with China/HK strength. Europe chalked up its best week since April on rate-cut bets and tech momentum.
– US fixed income sectors advanced as yields fell, while gold rose and the US dollar slipped on softer economic data and persistent shutdown concerns.

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Market Risk Index

Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.

Model Category Readings (Percentiles)

  • Psychology 99.7% 99.7%
  • Monetary 87.2% 87.2%
  • Valuation 99.3% 99.3%
  • Market Trend 9.8% 9.8%

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