Archive
World Wrap
– US equities saw midweek weakness but rebounded Friday on Powell speech. Intl stocks were up on stimulus talks. REITs & Commodities surged amid mkt volatility.
– Energy gained on oil’s rebound, while Tech fell after news the government might take a 10% Intel (INTC) stake and was unable to recover.
– Chinese equities heightened with stimulus hopes, leading Asia markets; stable gains in Europe supported by emerging growth signals.
– Decisive US bond auction rallied fixed income; dollar surged post-Fed remarks; rising oil prices driven by inventory drawdown.
Market Outlook – One Speech, Many Stories
World Wrap
– US and international equities climbed on Fed rate-cut hopes after tame US inflation, real estate lagged, Treasuries were choppy on hot PPI. Commodities fell.
– Healthcare rallied almost 5% on news that Berkshire had taken a stake in UNH. Small caps outperformed on increased rate cut odds.
– International equities rose for the week, led by Japan’s record-setting rally on strong GDP and Europe’s gains on Ukraine peace talk hopes.
– A hotter-than-expected PPI report midweek triggered a rise in Treasury yields and pressured international bonds. Fresh off a 3-Yr high, lumber fell more than 6%.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%