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World Wrap
– Global risk assets advanced, with the exception of commodities, which were pulled lower by falling crude oil prices.
– The worst-performing year-to-date sectors rebounded the most last week. Consumer Staples, 2025’s best performer, was the only declining sector.
– There was a broad rally internationally, with 41 of 45 countries advancing. European stocks continue to outperform.
– Treasury yields fell modestly, and the dollar stabilized as the Trump administration softened its tone on tariffs.

Market Outlook – Bearish Voices, Bullish Bets

World Wrap
– U.S. equities declined while other key global asset classes climbed. International equities outperformed U.S. stocks by more than 5% last week.
– Large-cap stocks, technology, and consumer discretionary sectors were the focus of selling, dragging the cap-weighted U.S. indices lower.
– Developed markets rallied more than 4%, with Europe accounting for 8 of the 10 best-performing countries year-to-date.
– The U.S. dollar sank to a three-year low, falling below 100. Gold hit new all-time highs, crossing above $3,330 per ounce.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%