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World Wrap
– Global equities declined on tariff & trade concerns. In the past 45 years, when U.S. stocks fell this much by this time of year, they were already in a bear market.
– There were places to hide last week, with four of 11 sectors advancing. Consumer Staples, a traditional safe-haven sector, climbed 1.7%.
– Developed international equities underperformed, though pockets of Europe and Emerging European stocks advanced.
– It was another week of all-time highs for gold. Despite a declining stock market, yields on U.S. Treasuries rose after core PCE inflation climbed to 2.8%.

Market Outlook – Buying the Dip at Record-High Allocations

World Wrap
– Global stocks rebounded modestly, while commodities outperformed. U.S. Treasury prices also rose.
– Sector performance was mixed, with declining sectors outnumbering advancing ones by 7 to 4. Energy, Financials, and Healthcare buoyed cap-weighted indices.
– Emerging markets outperformed despite a 1.7% decline in China. A one-week, 6.4% rally in India made the difference.
– Gold prices hit new all-time highs after surpassing $3,000 an ounce for the first time.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%