– Global financial assets rallied during the third quarter, with real estate and international equities leading the way. Commodities declined on lower oil prices.
– Q3 was good for unloved areas of the mkt. Small caps and value stocks outperformed. Utilities rallied 19.4% to become 2024’s best-performing sector.
– Emerging markets outperformed on strength from China. Its equity market climbed almost 24%, with most gains made in the last week of the quarter.
– Gold prices bounced 12.9%, continuing a steady pace of new all-time highs throughout the quarter.
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Market Outlook – Margin Debt Surge
World Wrap
– Fed chairman Powell’s more hawkish tone led to broad declines across global equities and fixed income.
– There were no safe havens, with all styles, sectors, and factors declining. Small stocks and value stocks suffered the largest declines.
– More than 90% of countries declined last week. Israel was an exception, advancing more than 2.5%. Israel is one of the best performing countries in 2024.
– Treasuries sold off, sending yields to post-election highs. The US Dollar climbed to a fresh 2-year high.
Market Outlook – Bull Market’s packaging marked Fra-Gee-Lay
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%