– While not severe, all major asset classes declined last week.
– Another advance by Large Growth stocks was insufficient to keep every other style and factor from dragging down cap-weighted indices.
– Latin America stood out, advancing 2.8% in a week when most equity markets declined.
– Spreads between different durations of short-term Treasury Bills have been volatile over the last six weeks as debt-ceiling talks continue.
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Market Outlook – Markets Wait and See
World Wrap
– US Equities and Commodities declined. Foreign stocks and prices on US Treasuries moved higher.
– Value stocks were hit hardest led by a 5.8% decline in Energy stocks. Technology stocks still managed to have a positive return.
– The Fed increased rates by 0.25 percent last week, it’s the 10th increase in the rate by the Fed in a little over a year.
– Yield Curve inversion worsened, becoming the second most severe inversion in over a century.
Market Outlook – Yield Curve is crying wolf – few are listening.
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%