– Seasonably strong period for stocks starts right on cue with a substantial rally for equities globally. The dollar fell by more than 4%.
– Growth stocks outperformed – Tech stocks were up more than 10% on the week.
– Developed markets outperformed US on strength in European markets and Japan.
– Bitcoin’s bear market took another leg down, declining 20%, on news of the failure of popular crypto exchange FTX.
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Market Outlook – The Cost of Peak Inflation
World Wrap
– US Risk assets sold off as Fed dashed hopes for a pivot on rate hikes. International equities and commodities advanced.
– Materials, Industrials, and Energy stocks moved higher. Tech stocks sold off sharply.
– Emerging markets were up almost 5% for the week on a 11% one week bear market rally in China.
– Federal Reserve increased the Fed Funds Rate to 4%, the highest level since January 2008.
Market Outlook – Powell’s Pail of Cold Water
%
Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%