– All asset classes advanced modestly, except US equities. After making new all-time highs early in the week, US stocks finished the week down 1%.
– Utilities and low vol stocks were a safe haven in a down week. All style boxes declined. Mid and small cap stocks were particularly hard hit.
– Emerging market stocks advanced 1.7% as China continues to dance to a different beat. Chinese stocks advanced more than 2% but are still down 3% ytd.
– Lumber prices fell more than 20% last week and are down almost 70% from the all-time-highs in May, bringing the 1yr return down to 2%.
Archive
Market Outlook – Inflation has the full attention of consumers.
– Highest PPI inflation since 1974.
– Consumer concern about high home and auto prices set a new record.
World Wrap
– A mixed week for asset classes. US stocks and Treasuries advanced, while commodities and intl stocks declined. Real Estate was the big winner.
– Strength in big cap growth masked weakness under the surface. Small-caps, mid-caps, and value stocks all declined.
– A difficult week for emerging market equities as Chinese equities fell by more than 4%. China is down 6.2% ytd.
– Lumber sank 7% to a lower low and is down 58% from it’s all-time-high in May, but it’s still up more than 40% from last year.
Market Outlook – Unreasonable Investor Expectations
– Market Risk Index climbs back above 90%.
– Individual investor equity return expectations climb above dot com era levels.
– Lots of charts of new records, in sentiment, valuations, investor leverage…
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Market Risk Index
Market Risk Index scales from 0 to 100%. Higher readings correspond with higher risk markets. Scores below 25% are bullish. Scores between 25-75% are neutral, and scores above 75% are markets vulnerable to major drawdowns.
Model Category Readings (Percentiles)
- Psychology 99.7%
- Monetary 87.2%
- Valuation 99.3%
- Market Trend 9.8%